Thursday, November 19, 2009

In life you hold the statistical advantage!

I'm not a gambler, but I do play the Black Jack game on my cell phone quite a bit. Before I had ever been to a real Casino I discovered something obvious about the game in my phone. I discovered that over time I would always win out. The reason was that no matter how many times I might lose a hand I could always double my bet - over and over again if necessary - and eventually I would end up with more money than I started with. As long as I kept playing, and kept raising the stakes, I would alway increase my earnings!

I thought to myself; if it's so easy to win at this game, why don't people just quit there jobs and play cards for a living at real Casinos; whats the catch?

But in Las Vegas there is one critical difference. Even though the odds of winning an individual hand are identical, and the game is played exactly the same, there is one major drawback. At a real Casino each table has established a "maximum" bet. An amount of money that you can bet no higher than on any given hand. As a consequence of the "maximum" bet you can't follow the strategy of simply parlaying your bet because you will almost always hit that ceiling!

On the game in my phone no matter how many times I lose I can always double up and eventually I win. In the Casino there is a limit to what I can bet, and it's this limit that is responsible for statistically always making the house win.

And so here is my point. Most people think life is like a Casino. They try things and lose, they try again and lose, and unfortunately if they lose enough times they arbitrarily decide that they have hit there limit and stop trying. They get up and leave the table.

The great news is that life isn't like a Casino. Life is more like the game on my cell phone. In life there is no "maximum" bet. You can keep on betting and keep on betting, and all you need is one big success to make up for dozens of misses.

Over time, because there is no maximum to the number of tries you get, life is always stacked in your favor. Some appear to gain there successes more quickly, others more slowly, but the great news is this: it is a 100% statistical certainty that as long you keep on trying you will succeed!

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